Saturday, April 22, 2006

Why is gas expensive today? - some of the root causes

Act one (circa 1970’s):

Nixon goes to China and Americans and Chinese play ping-pong together. All ping-pong equipment to be sold in the States soon to be ‘made in China’. The so-called ‘détente’ with East Europe allows for the beginning of timid manufacturing outsourcing in the form of ‘mixed capital’ enterprises where the communist state would hold at least 51% of the shares and provide the cheap labor while the Western partner would transfer know-how and technology.

Act two (late 1970’s):

Increasingly larger numbers of Third World immigrants, legal or not, are making it into the country. Hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese refugees are followed by Iranians, then Nigerians, then the Marielito Cubans. Mexicans, Dominicans, Haitians find that settling America illegally is surprisingly easy and that there are no significant downsides.

The US population increases, the ethnic mix changes. Traffic jams become really annoyng.

Act three – consolidation (1990-2005):

The US population doubles between 1950 and 2006, from 150 million to 300 million. (It is not clear if the 300 million figure counts the illegals. It probably does not.) Most of the population increase is attributable to immigrants and their immediate offspring. Many politicians and their media partners keep repeating that 'more' people in the country is 'better'. No one bothers to explain 'why'.

Low-wage and sometime undemocratic and unfree countries such as China are increasingly successful at persuading American and other Western-based manufacturers to move production off their home base and make more things abroad. They demand that increasingly more know-how is transferred to them and sometimes they demand that certain goods are manufactured inside their country and that certain technology transfers are made before they would allow those goods on their market.

Individual 'average' Americans find it increasingly difficult to compete with cheap, foreign labor. It’s manufacturing workers first, then, increasingly, white collar workers. Paying tens of thousands of dollars for a well-rounded education or to major in fields such as ‘computer science’ doesn’t appear to be worth it, given the reality of such jobs being outsourced. The non-outsourceable jobs that natives used to find safe: plumber, roofer, cab driver are now grabbed by illegals or new immigrants who happen to be mortgage-free and hungry to make a buck. Jobs such as 'lawyer' and 'politician' appear to be safe for the time being.


Conclusion (2006 and beyond)

The increased industrialization of Third World's over-populated countries increases the world-wide demand for oil.

The doubling of the US population in 50 years coupled with the US no longer building nuclear power plants and actually destroying some salmon-unfriendly hydro-power plants causes for the US oil demand to increase.

The US government invasion of Iraq and its increase hinting that Iran may be the next major oil producer to be attacked adds to the price of oil.

The eroding purchasing power of US citizens – given that more and more good paying jobs are outsourced abroad makes oil less affordable.

The US Congress' inability to act in ways that would advance the US national interest on issues such as immigration, outsourcing and a national energy policy guarantees that the situation is unlikely to improve.

The media fascination with ‘price gouging’ can only confuse the public and prevent the nation (if such a thing still exists) from focusing on the root causes of the problem.

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